THE FORECAST

Blackout Day forecast.

FORECAST SCENARIO
February 2027Event 4 of 13
CYBER THREATInstability
AI CAPABILITY FRONTIERBroad Capacities

REPORTED · 01 / 13

AI is already helping cyber attackers.

Anthropic’s September threat-intelligence report described criminals and state-linked actors using Claude to help with cyber attacks. It covered activity disrupted between December 2025 and August 2026.

The reported cases showed AI helping attackers work faster and target more organisations. That pressure is one of the starting points for our forecast.

Sources 1

MONTHLY UPDATE · 02 / 13

Disruption across everyday services.

October’s reports span shops, court notices and cloud backup tools. Some physical operations kept running while the computer services behind them were unavailable.

Many businesses rely on outside companies to run their websites, handle staff logins or process payments. Problems at those providers are the risks we carry into 2027. Our October starting levels are Anomalies and Broad Capacities.

Sources 4
Cyber AnomaliesAI Broad Capacities
At home

Internet & communications

Daily life depends on connected services.

Supply chains

Retail and logistics depend on shared systems.

Utilities

Utilities rely on digital coordination.

Payments

Payments rely on trusted digital connections.

From here: our forecast scenarioThe timeline now moves from reported events into our projections.

FORECAST SCENARIO · 03 / 13

Pressure builds.

A GP surgery cannot open its appointment system, a train operator loses its live departure board and some card payments fail. Each problem lasts only part of the day, but people have to change their plans.

Receptionists take names on paper and passengers wait for announcements. The affected systems return, then fail again a few days later. Staff spend more time finding ways around repeated interruptions.

Cyber InstabilityAI Broad Capacities
At home

Internet & communications

A messaging app or appointment website will not load.

Supply chains

Some deliveries arrive late as transport schedules change.

Utilities

You cannot report a fault through an online account.

Payments

Your card is declined because the shop cannot process it.

FORECAST DEVELOPMENT · 04 / 13

Different services. The same weak link.

A GP practice, a council and a train operator can rely on the same outside company to run their websites or check staff logins. When that provider goes offline, all three feel it.

People see different services fail, but the broken link behind them is the same. Reception staff cannot see appointment lists, council workers cannot open records and passengers cannot check changes to their journeys.

Cyber InstabilityAI Broad Capacities
At home

Internet & communications

Several apps or websites fail at the same time.

Supply chains

Schools and delivery teams cannot see some schedules.

Utilities

Staff cannot open customer records or repair bookings.

Payments

Different organisations struggle to take online payments.

FORECAST SCENARIO · 05 / 13

Recursive improvement.

AI starts improving the software used to build the next version of itself. It writes changes, runs tests and uses the results to make another round of improvements.

Security teams use it to spot suspicious activity and fix software faster. Criminal groups use it to produce more convincing scam messages and search for ways into accounts. Both sides can do more work in less time.

Cyber InstabilityAI RSI
At home

Internet & communications

Apps and online tools change more quickly.

Supply chains

More work schedules and appointments are handled automatically.

Utilities

Companies use AI to help identify and fix faults.

Payments

Scam messages become harder to distinguish from real ones.

FORECAST SCENARIO · 06 / 13

The cascade begins.

A company that runs online services for many organisations goes offline. Staff at a pharmacy, a transport operator and a utility provider cannot reliably sign in or reach the records they need.

Medicines are on the shelves and trains are available, but the computer links behind them are broken. Pharmacy staff cannot check some prescriptions, passengers cannot see service changes and repair teams lose access to fault reports.

Cyber CascadeAI RSI
At home

Internet & communications

Apps reject logins or show error messages.

Supply chains

Pharmacy staff cannot access some prescription records.

Utilities

Repair teams cannot open fault reports or account details.

Payments

Card machines and online checkouts stop accepting payments.

FORECAST DEVELOPMENT · 07 / 13

Workarounds become routine.

A surgery takes appointment requests by phone and writes them down. Station staff use noticeboards for travel updates, while a repair team keeps addresses and fault reports on paper.

Each job takes longer. Phone queues grow, appointments need checking again and repairs wait while teams match paper notes to their records. Some services reduce their hours because staff cannot help as many people.

Cyber CascadeAI RSI
At home

Internet & communications

You need to phone or visit instead of using an app.

Supply chains

Appointment requests and delivery details are written down by hand.

Utilities

You wait longer for an answer about a fault or repair.

Payments

Some shops accept cash while card machines are down.

FORECAST SCENARIO · 08 / 13

General capability.

AI can now switch between many kinds of work: writing software, planning transport routes, organising appointments and answering questions. Organisations give it more of the jobs people used to do themselves.

It helps teams organise care schedules, find mistakes in records and respond to service faults. As more workplaces depend on these tools, an outage can leave an entire team unable to do part of its work.

Cyber CascadeAI AGI
At home

Internet & communications

AI answers more questions about appointments and services.

Supply chains

Delivery teams use AI to reroute food and medicine supplies.

Utilities

Repair teams use AI to sort fault reports.

Payments

AI checks invoices, refunds and suspicious payments.

FORECAST DEVELOPMENT · 09 / 13

Disruption reaches the supply chain.

Warehouses have food, medicines and spare parts, but staff cannot reliably receive orders or book transport. Lorries leave late or carry only part of what schools, pharmacies and shops need.

A pharmacy waits for a routine medicine delivery, a school changes its meals and repair teams wait longer for parts. Disruption to ordering and transport now affects services people rely on every day.

Cyber CascadeAI AGI
At home

Internet & communications

Tracking pages show old or missing delivery information.

Supply chains

Schools, pharmacies and shops receive fewer supplies.

Utilities

Repairs are delayed while teams wait for parts.

Payments

Businesses wait longer to send invoices and receive payment.

FORECAST SCENARIO · 10 / 13

Essential services under strain.

People struggle to make calls, use online banking and find out whether a bus or appointment is going ahead. Energy and water companies have trouble accessing fault reports, customer records and crew schedules.

Fixing one computer system is not enough. A repair team also needs working phones, the right address and the correct spare part. Several of those things are now missing at the same time.

Cyber CriticalAI AGI
At home

Internet & communications

Calls fail and mobile data drops out for longer periods.

Supply chains

Medicine and food deliveries face major delays.

Utilities

Water or power repairs wait on staff, information and parts.

Payments

You have trouble checking your balance or moving money.

FORECAST SCENARIO · 11 / 13

Beyond human capability.

AI can analyse far more information than a human team and solve difficult technical problems much faster. It finds software faults, works out repair plans and develops new tools at a pace people struggle to follow.

The same speed helps criminal groups search for weak accounts and computer systems. A company may have a fix ready, yet still need staff, working communications and time to install it safely.

Cyber CriticalAI Superintelligence
At home

Internet & communications

Phone and internet problems continue during repairs.

Supply chains

Medicine and food deliveries remain late while teams catch up.

Utilities

Repair crews still need working equipment and spare parts.

Payments

Some banking and payment services work while others remain down.

FORECAST DEVELOPMENT · 12 / 13

Recovery becomes harder to coordinate.

A surgery can open its appointment system again, but its phone provider is still down. A water company can see fault reports, but a repair contractor cannot yet receive the job details.

Staff check handwritten appointment lists against their records so people are not missed or booked twice. Repair teams wait for phone lines, spare parts and other companies to finish their work. Getting services working together takes longer than repairing any one system.

Cyber CriticalAI Superintelligence
At home

Internet & communications

One app starts working while another still fails.

Supply chains

Appointments and deliveries wait for connected services to return.

Utilities

Repair teams cannot finish until other faults are fixed.

Payments

Payments and refunds wait while records are checked.

FORECAST SCENARIO · 13 / 13

Blackout.

Widespread cyber attacks bring essential services down together. Large areas lose electricity and running water. Mobile networks and broadband go dark, trains stop and petrol stations cannot dispense fuel. Hospitals switch to emergency procedures as appointments are cancelled and pharmacies cannot reliably dispense medicines.

Card machines, bank transfers and cash machines fail across affected regions. Supermarkets close or ration what remains on the shelves. Food and medicine deliveries stop reaching many communities as warehouses, ports and transport operators lose the systems they need to move supplies.

This is no longer a series of short outages. Cyber attacks have damaged equipment as well as software, and repair crews face broken communications, fuel shortages and missing parts. Households face days without dependable heat, water, contact with family or access to money. Stored essentials and help nearby become central to daily life.

Cyber BlackoutAI Superintelligence
At home

Internet & communications

Mobile calls and home internet are unavailable across large areas.

Supply chains

Supermarkets ration food; medicine and fuel deliveries stop reaching many communities.

Utilities

Extended power cuts and loss of running water affect whole communities.

Payments

Card payments, bank transfers and cash withdrawals fail across affected regions.

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Recovery

Months to rebuild. A different world beyond.

In our forecast, it could take months for daily life to settle into a new normal. Restoring a website is only the beginning: damaged equipment needs replacing, records need checking and food, fuel and medicines need moving again.

Weeks for basic utilities

We expect basic power, water and communications to return in stages over weeks where cyber attacks have caused physical damage. Crews must repair substations, pumps and network equipment, often while fuel, spare parts and working phone lines are scarce. The hardest-hit places take longer, and restored services remain intermittent.

Months for supplies to catch up

Supply chains recover in months, not days. Ports must clear stranded containers, factories need materials and shops need fresh stock. A working checkout does not refill a supermarket or get a missing medicine to a pharmacy. Deliveries, repairs and routine appointments remain backed up long after the first systems restart.

A new post-AGI world

We do not expect the old normal to return fully. Some businesses never reopen, familiar services change and AI takes over more of the work that people once did. Recovery means rebuilding everyday life in a post-AGI world, with different jobs, institutions and ways of supporting one another.

Life after AGI: prepare for what comes next ↗
Sources & context

The basis of our forecast.

We begin with recent reports of AI-assisted cyber activity and disruption at retailers, public services and cloud providers. Those reports supply the pressures we carry into 2027: faster operations, shared dependencies and difficult recovery.

The earlier entries link to their original sources. January 2027 marks the start of our forward scenario, with Blackout in December 2027. Our live assessments remain on the monitor.

Blackout means widespread disruption across internet and communications, supply chains, utilities and payments. Our December scenario brings widespread failures across these services together, including extended power and water outages.

Further reading

Sources checked 26 October 2026. In focus images: AI-generated illustrations.